Changing guard

Having actively observed the technology space pan out across various markets for a few years now, it is striking that some of the questions remain the same.

Q: What are those needs that drive the changes in this space?
Interestingly, this one never changes. In spite of rapid changes in technology and lifestyles, peoples needs continue to revolve around
Information - structure, language, content, ease of search, accessibility
Entertainment - richer, higher content
Communication - easier, simulating the living-room experience
Transaction - speed, security, convenience

Q: What will determine how people will react to these changes?
While researchers and analysts are splitting the hairs right down the middle, I think there are three broad factors that drive peoples reactions to changes -age, race, gender

Q: What would provide the competitive edge?
Dominace would center around safeguarding the core technology IPR through securing rights on the medium (devices, network, hosting). However, the core technology IPR should continue to strive for convergence, convenience and lower prices.

Q: So how are different players competing?
... Google is betting on medium and accessibility
... Yahoo is betting on people using some or all the components to create a social medium
... Microsoft is betting on entertainment
... Production houses are betting on content

Needless to say, there will be several derived, expanding markets
... Server manufacturers are betting on low-end RISC UNIX boxes to serve SME markets
... Tie-ups between significant players (e.g. Google and Sun) to provide computing infrastructure
... Intel to expand the chip-set product ranges
etc.

Q: What am I betting on?
Convergence and price. Why? There is a vastly served market and there is a vast underserved market. I continue to argue for the underserved market. Needs are undefined and aplenty; they have been priced out of the marketplace and forced to look for cheap alternatives. Thus, if Google were to embrace the consumer electronics market and evolve home devices, then my bet will be on Google to continue dominating. (This would make a target price in excess of $500 at the end of 2006 seem reasonable).

While business models will change, Google has proved that advertising revenues can only grow higher. Price points can be broken only if the attempt is to ensure that end-user receives it free. This would suggest that the only way to defeat piracy is to partially embrace it - offer limited content free that can be widely distributed and see what all advertising revenues can be earned in the distribution. Retain premium content that is distributed with devices, thus limiting the scope for piracy. After all, piracy is not an art.

Q: What would this imply?
Office suites would soon be available as a web service, music artists would start selling some of their songs for free and start earning of advertising revenues etc.

Q: Why do I believe this?
I believe this because there is always money to be made; it just doesn't have to be made off me.