Hubris

One feels the need to highlight three separate scenarios that have been played out over the last couple of months. Like a Woody Allen script.

Story #1
A chance discovery of a couple of blogs led to a rapid discovery of various other blogs. Most of these were unrelated to me but pointed towards an online community that lived, loved, hated, abused ... in a virtual plane. What shocked me was that I used to know some of these people, and they were decent in our interactions. But in an online world, they snarled, roared, complained, washed dirty linen, hurled invectives ... essentially, the works. Some were targetted towards me, and refers to a point in time when I used to interact with these people. Quite hilarious, now that I do think about it, that during my interactions with some of these people, I was oblivious to the fact that they were keeping one eye on a PC, abusing me at will.

Fast forward a couple of years, and speed-reading some of the posts indicates a big chill that seems to have set in amongst the community members. It appears that each has plunged a knife in someone else's back, only to find that the same favour is being done to them at that moment. Quite a unique loop, this.

However, cowardice and betrayal is not a key learning here. The hubris that surrounded some of the initial posts indicates that there was an aura of invincibility surrounding their online personas. Self-indulgence led to abusive posts, with each personality claiming superiority in form, content, humour etc. Old stories and emotions were being replayed like a faded yesteryear movie in sepia tones. Each was seeking their Muse, seeking assurances from external sources that they were indeed a poet.

The Internet played the role of a superstructure supporting very fragile egos.

Story #2
The India story and influx of several funds has caused a concern: structurally, we are no different than we were a couple of years back. Yet, the hubris that surrounds investment themes has led me to become a confirmed 'Contrarian' and adopt the role of a 'Cassandra'. I would be hard-pressed to see this growth sustain, and I would suggest a pruning down to focus on industry leaders in growing markets. The 20th century saw three great stock market bubbles and at least three great industrial crashes in America alone. The glut of investments, scarcity of ideas and volatile demand saw an eventual crash. Put simply, too much money was put at too much risk, and a hundred thousand lemmings said they could not be wrong.

Story #3
A glut of reading over the last couple of months has led me to finish a very sober, well - documented book: "Enron: The Rise and Fall" by Loren Fox. Again, Enron did not fail because of accounting fraud. They were led to accounting fraud and were caught out by their accounting fraud. But where they failed was poorly researched, expensive investments into non-core businesses. Aided by Wall Street pressures to maintain steady earnings growth and an internal mania to seek stock price growth, they faltered along the way. Returns from several businesses did not even cover their cost of capital. But their blind over-confidence led them to absorb ever increasing levels of debt in myriad forms; pre-paid swaps, credit-quality linked loans, promisory notes etc. The underlying economics of their businesses could not deliver the promised returns. Compound that with hubris, and there was an inevitable implosion created by a wave of accounting scandals.

These three stories have taken place simultaneously and independently. But I hear the quiet voice of reason gently pointing out the dangers of hubris. Gentle prodding reminds me of the tale of Icarus. The irony of Icarus' death is that it went unnoticed - a mere splash in the sea - during springtime. The tale points out the poets' fear of exultantly flying higher, only to end as a tiny splash of failure ... unnoticed, and in many cases, unloved.

This has only strengthened my resolve: no matter how high I fly, I will always remember where I came from, remember who I am, remember how often I've failed, and remain sober. My licence to freedom does not grant me the right to infringe on another's licence to be free.

Happy New Year.

Calliope woman

Calliope woman, when you are alone
Tell me, how does the tune go?
Join me by the riverside
Let's call out the Muse
Tonight, black nightingales may sigh
See that train, leap into that last car
We've got reservations for two
Watch this gypsy caravan weave spells
In time, share this tune with me.
Traipsing between Jupiter and Apollo
While marvelling at King Tut's tomb out below
Tell me, how does the tune go?
Am a childish wordsmith, a lyrical liar
Slap me and kiss those wounds
The ones your words leave behind
Breathe softly against my neck
Nurse my unspoken vows.
Sinking my tears into your hair
Tenderness leaves your face aglow
Tell me, how does the tune go?

A fictitious community

Enough is enough - back to reality.

As a member of the species known as "Indian Male", I am sorry to say that we are a bunch of losers.

Scanning news items in the Google newsfeed, I became violently upset on reading three news-items of rape in the last few days alone. We deserve our image - no country can ever hope to achieve anything of note if women are treated this poorly. Not only does rape happen, but it happens with such impunity that it makes daylight robbery seem tame. And to make it worse - noone is spared. Not even minors.

This is a cultural issue - beefing up security, teaching women the art of self-defence and imposing death penalties can only provide defence mechanisms against the crime. Prevention requires certain ruthlessness in getting the message across - this is a crime worse than murder, and will not be tolerated. While I'm not for one moment suggesting that lawlessness be dealt with by creating a "Wild West" where gunfights are a regular phenomenon, effective action by citizens will help deal with the issues.

But out of curiosity, what will it take to get the message across? In an interesting conversation with this gentleman who owns large pieces of land up North, I learnt that women often congregated to form economic units, units that look after the health of one another etc. Most men were involved in physical labour - tilling the land, chopping down forests for firewood, indulging in alcohol and causing mayhem. There is a sickness, a malaise that will simply not cause us to move forward - he summed up this malaise nicely, "There is no sense of community among men."

Our priorities are simply out of order. Yes, we need to create an economy that provides for employment and combats inflation. Yes, we need a nation with a thriving agricultural sector. Yes, we need to reduce all deficits - fiscal, trade etc. - and achieve this through our services and export sectors. Yes, we need to focus on infrastructure - Health Systems, Financial Services, Golden Quadrilateral etc. Yes, we need to foster secular beliefs. Yes, we need all this and much more.

But, let's drop all ambitions and first address a doubt: what will it take to ensure that the lowest common denominator is a responsible Indian?

A map to El Dorado

Earn off resources becoming more scarce or off alternatives that lead us from scarcity

Figure out where human populations are multiplying

Follow this up with figuring out the danger levels in each populace above which the current consumption levels will lead to serious trouble

Figure out the order in which resources will be consumed

There will be surpluses where resources will exist; these will be jealously guarded by nations, companies etc. Figure out the motivations of this lot i.e. what makes them tick?

If the gatekeeper to the surplus doesn't feel like playing ball, then search for a substitute or alternative

Invest in the dying resources in their order of mortality or in the growing alternative

Figure out at what point of time the growing alternative will rely more on the support structures to ensure it is available to the paying public

Then, invest in the support structure

Stick to this approach rigorously for about fifteen years; re-invest all the money you make back into this theory

Enter El Dorado

Immortal, for a limited time

Create
Laugh
Reach
Fall
Survive
Thrive
Rest
Sleep
Muse
Believe
Know
Weep
Challenge
Disbelieve
Understand
Forgive
Learn
Love

Return to Innocence

The future will see more uncertainty and less assuredness of any organization. Not just because competition will become hotter, but because of our ever-intensifying search for morals and values and for meaning beyond "cheaper, new and improved". Today, those organizations that fail to participate in the ecosystem of the individual will meet with failure. Out of curiosity, how many variables will define the ecosystem? I guess these variables are nothing more than relationships. There are relationships with self, family, friends, society and the world. With some, God may feature as an all - encompassing relationship. All efforts will need to focus on discovering those morals, understanding how they form the structure of relationships, serve those that work and kick out those that fail.

It will be the responsibility of the individual to figure out what those morals are. At each step, we will be confronted by "Either - Or" choices. Should I support stem-cell research or not? Should I be investing more time into this marriage? Should I be calling my parents back home every day? Should I read the prayer-book every morning? Should I give up meat? Should I value the relationship with my significant other? Should I be sending money to that charity organization? Are these books worth the effort? Should I prioritize my career over family for the next three years? Should I be worried about AIDS afflicting India? Are my children watching too much television? Should I be worried about our education systems? Morals, values and meanings.

It will be responsbility of the organization to answer those questions through services - not products, not solutions - just services. Software, the least mature of all industries, is realizing this and heading towards that goal. In fact, one of the most sweeping technological change is the way technology will be served to us - as a service.

As change will be an everyday factor, the organization will need to be adaptable. For adaptability, one of the biggest forces that drove the 20th century will fade away : scale. Centralization and decentralization will become a fad, and loose units funded by Venture Capitalists and mentored by other Entrepreneurs will become the order of the day. Successful ventures will see themselves being nothing more than three / four member units with every other function apart from their core competence being handled by other three / four member complementary partner units. (Note: not merely outsourced). Each unit will seek to manufacture the design that will dominate the industry that will serve the values each person seeks.

One warning though: the path to prosperity can be nothing short of ugly. As each society rises dramatically to a new height, the inequity that other societies face will manifest in many ways - warfare, disease, poverty etc. In simpler terms, the rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer. This could lead to the rise of local despotic tyrants and we would see 19th Century all over again. Therefore, one of the values that will need to be constantly re-inforced through action will be that of "survival". Not of the self, for the self will survive - but that of humanity. Once we have committed ourselves to this value, the rest will fall in place. Taxation laws, funding and collection agencies, media, pharmaceutical companies, distribution agencies, logistics specialists, teachers, venture capitalists etc. will mould themselves to re-inforce this value, this commitment.

Is that of any value to us?